The 2024 European Parliament elections have resulted in a major political shift, reflecting growing discontent with traditional centrist parties across the continent. Far-right and nationalist parties have gained significant traction, particularly in key EU nations such as France, Italy, and Germany. These results are expected to have far-reaching implications, not only for European governance but also for national politics in several member states.

A Resounding Victory for the Far Right

The most notable trend from this year’s elections has been the dramatic rise of the far-right across Europe. In France, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally garnered nearly a third of the vote, solidifying itself as the leading political force in the country. This surge in support comes at a time when dissatisfaction with the centrist government of President Emmanuel Macron is at an all-time high, driven by frustrations over immigration policies, economic challenges, and France’s role in the European Union.

In Italy, Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy also saw substantial gains, reinforcing her party’s dominance within the country’s right-wing political spectrum. Meloni’s popularity has continued to rise due to her stance on issues such as immigration control and national sovereignty, which have resonated with a large segment of the Italian electorate. Her success in the European Parliament elections further consolidates her influence, both in Italy and within the broader European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group.

In Germany, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) made significant inroads, capturing a notable share of the vote. This party, which has capitalized on opposition to immigration and skepticism towards the EU, has positioned itself as a major player in Germany’s political landscape. The success of AfD, along with gains by Orbán’s Fidesz in Hungary and Poland’s Confederation party, indicates a broader shift towards nationalism and euroskepticism within the European Union.

The Challenges for Centrist and Traditional Parties

Despite the rise of the far right, the European People’s Party (EPP), led by Ursula von der Leyen, remains the largest bloc in the European Parliament, securing around 25% of the seats. However, this victory comes with significant challenges. Although von der Leyen’s center-right group remains dominant, the increasing influence of far-right parties will complicate efforts to maintain the pro-European coalition that has governed the EU for decades.

To secure her re-election as European Commission President, von der Leyen will likely need to forge alliances with the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and the liberal Renew Europe group. However, this traditional three-way coalition, which has been the backbone of European governance, is now under threat. The fragmentation of political power and the rise of far-right forces may force von der Leyen to make concessions to these groups on sensitive issues like immigration, climate change, and economic reforms.

Far-Right Influence on European Policy

The rise of the far right has raised concerns about the direction in which European policies may shift in the coming years. Although far-right parties are often fragmented due to differing views on issues such as relations with Russia and the EU’s structure, their collective strength will likely exert pressure on key policy areas.

Immigration remains one of the most contentious topics. Far-right parties have capitalized on public fear and dissatisfaction over the influx of migrants, particularly in southern European countries like Italy and Greece, where the strain on public services has been felt most acutely. With more far-right MEPs in the European Parliament, there will be heightened pressure to tighten immigration policies, reduce asylum quotas, and increase border security measures. This could lead to more restrictive European policies on refugees and migrants, affecting not just southern European nations but the entire EU.

Economic policies could also be impacted. Many far-right parties oppose what they see as the over-regulation of industries and the EU’s focus on green energy and environmental reforms. The results of the election suggest that nationalist and populist parties will push back against stringent climate policies that they argue harm traditional industries like manufacturing and farming. This could result in a slowdown or rollback of the EU’s ambitious Green Deal, which aims to make the continent climate-neutral by 2050.

Green and Liberal Parties Face Setbacks

In contrast to the far-right surge, green and liberal parties faced setbacks in the 2024 elections. The Greens, who had gained considerable influence in the previous parliamentary term, saw significant losses in Germany and France, where voters appeared to prioritize economic concerns over environmental policies. This decline in support for green parties suggests a waning enthusiasm for the EU’s aggressive environmental agenda, particularly among voters who feel that climate policies have negatively impacted jobs and economic growth.

The Renew Europe group, a key pillar of the centrist coalition, also suffered major losses. French President Emmanuel Macron’s party, which had been a leading force within the liberal bloc, saw its support collapse, largely due to dissatisfaction with Macron’s domestic policies. Renew’s shrinking influence will likely weaken Macron’s ability to push his vision of a federalist Europe, where closer integration and centralized decision-making are the primary goals.

Implications for National Politics

The European Parliament elections often serve as a barometer for national political sentiment, and the 2024 results have already begun to impact domestic politics in several member states. In France, the success of Le Pen’s National Rally has forced President Macron to dissolve the National Assembly and call for snap elections, an extraordinary move that reflects the pressure he is under from the growing far-right movement. Should Le Pen continue to gain momentum, France could face a political shift that threatens its long-standing commitment to the EU and the broader European project.

In Germany, the gains made by AfD have raised concerns about the future direction of German politics, particularly in the context of immigration and EU relations. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats have struggled to maintain their influence, and the rise of the far right is likely to complicate coalition-building efforts within Germany’s parliament.

In Italy, Giorgia Meloni’s success strengthens her hand both domestically and within the EU. As a rising figure within the European far-right movement, Meloni is poised to play a critical role in shaping the EU’s policies, especially regarding national sovereignty and EU integration.

A New Political Landscape for the European Union

The 2024 European Parliament elections mark a turning point for the European Union. With the far right on the rise and traditional centrist coalitions under pressure, the EU faces a period of political instability and potential policy shifts. The challenges posed by immigration, economic inequality, and the climate crisis have fueled the rise of populist and nationalist movements that are now reshaping the political landscape.

As the new European Parliament begins its term, all eyes will be on how the centrist forces, led by Ursula von der Leyen, will respond to the far-right’s growing influence. Will they be able to maintain the EU’s pro-integration agenda, or will nationalist forces succeed in pulling the Union in a different direction? The answers to these questions will define the future of the EU for years to come.