The Alternative for Germany (AfD) has made history by becoming the first far-right party to win a state election in Germany since the end of the Nazi era, delivering a significant blow to Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government just a year before the next federal election.

As voting concluded on Sunday, the AfD emerged as the strongest party in the eastern state of Thuringia, securing 32.8% of the vote, and came a close second in Saxony with 30.6%. This victory underscores the growing support for far-right ideologies in Germany, particularly in the eastern regions, and poses a challenge for the country’s mainstream political landscape.

Adding to the concerns of Germany’s traditional parties, the newly formed Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), a far-left party with some shared views with the AfD on immigration and skepticism towards Germany’s support for Ukraine, finished third in both states, despite being founded earlier this year.

While extremism has historically been more prevalent in Germany’s eastern states, these results represent a broader challenge for Scholz’s center-left SPD coalition, which finished a distant fifth in both regions. Polls indicate that if federal elections were held today, the AfD could potentially become the second-largest party in the Bundestag, with the SPD trailing behind.

Scholz described the election results as “bitter” and invoked the European principle of the “cordon sanitaire,” urging mainstream parties in Thuringia and Saxony to exclude the AfD from any governing coalitions. “All democratic parties are now called upon to form stable governments without right-wing extremists,” Scholz stated. “Our country cannot and must not get used to this. The AfD is damaging Germany. It is weakening the economy, dividing society, and ruining our country’s reputation.”

Alice Weidel, co-leader of the AfD, responded to the results by declaring them a “requiem” for Scholz’s coalition, questioning whether it can continue to govern effectively. Speaking to CNN at a campaign rally in Erfurt, Thuringia, where chants of “deport, deport” echoed through the crowd, Weidel criticized Germany’s immigration policies, stating, “The immediate expulsion of all illegal immigrants from our country. All criminals, all extremists must leave.”

If other parties heed Scholz’s call to isolate the AfD, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the mainstream center-right party that finished first in Saxony and second in Thuringia, could stand to benefit. However, in a sign of Germany’s rightward shift, the CDU has adopted a more stringent stance on immigration, moving away from the more moderate policies of former leader Angela Merkel.

The Rise of the AfD in the East

Founded in 2013, initially as a protest party against the euro and the German-backed bailouts during the eurozone crisis, the AfD has since evolved into a party combining economic grievance with strong anti-immigration rhetoric. The party gained significant traction after former Chancellor Merkel’s decision in 2015 to allow over a million refugees, mostly fleeing the Syrian civil war, into Germany.

While Merkel’s decision was lauded by Europe’s liberal mainstream, it became a rallying point for extremist parties in Germany’s former communist east, where economic challenges and fewer opportunities have fueled resentment. Johannes Kiess, a sociologist specializing in far-right extremism at the University of Leipzig, explained that there is a “much more anti-political sentiment in East Germany,” rooted in the transformative years following the collapse of communism in the 1990s. This environment has provided fertile ground for anti-establishment parties like the AfD and political entrepreneurs like Sahra Wagenknecht.

A Shifting Political Landscape

Just days before the state elections, a Syrian man attacked and killed three people at a festival in Solingen, in western Germany. Weidel pointed to Germany’s migration policy as the root cause, stating, “Instead of racking our brains over the various models of knife bans, we must finally tackle the problem at its roots. Migration change immediately.”

The AfD’s anti-immigration stance is also resonating with younger Germans. The movement has even gained a cultural foothold, with a video circulating of well-dressed youths on the vacation island of Sylt chanting nationalist slogans to a Eurodance beat. This chant echoed throughout Germany as it hosted the European soccer championships earlier this summer.

At the Erfurt rally, Kevin Flurschutz, a 21-year-old public transport engineer who recently joined the AfD’s youth wing, voiced his concerns about immigration. “Hardly anyone dares to go out anymore. To be honest, I find that sad,” said Flurschutz, who wore a T-shirt emblazoned with “White boy summer.”

Carolin Lichtenfeld, another 21-year-old supporter, shared similar sentiments, citing personal experiences of harassment in public spaces. Both Lichtenfeld and Flurschutz are members of the Young Alternative (JA), the AfD’s youth wing, which has been labeled a “confirmed extremist” organization by German authorities. The main AfD party has been designated as a “suspected extremist” group.

The Challenge Ahead

The AfD’s lead candidate in Thuringia, Björn Höcke, who was convicted earlier this year for using Nazi slogans in public, has campaigned on a platform of national pride untainted by historical guilt. His message of “Heimat” (homeland) has resonated strongly in the east, where many voters feel neglected by traditional parties. “Yes to freedom, yes to the community, yes to the youth, yes to the future, yes to our Heimat, Thuringia and Germany,” Höcke declared at the Erfurt rally.

As the AfD’s popularity continues to grow, it raises uncomfortable memories of Germany’s darkest political era. Yet, as Kiess noted, the German public appears increasingly tolerant of extremists like Höcke. “Twenty or 30 years ago, we would have said, ‘This is a neo-Nazi, a fascist, and you cannot vote for a guy like that.’ But people don’t care anymore,” Kiess said.

The AfD’s rise in the east and its potential impact on Germany’s political future is a wake-up call for the country’s mainstream parties. As the 2024 federal elections approach, the challenge for Chancellor Scholz and other democratic leaders will be to counter the growing appeal of far-right extremism and to reconnect with voters who feel alienated by traditional politics.

For many in Germany, the AfD’s victory is a stark reminder of the need to address the underlying issues that have fueled its rise. As Flurschutz, the young AfD supporter, bluntly put it, “The AfD is the only alternative we have left here in Germany.”