Fine Gael’s Increase and Fianna Fáil’s Decline

Fine Gael’s Increase and Fianna Fáil’s Decline

In the latest Sunday Independent Ireland Thinks poll, Fine Gael has seen a slight increase in support, while coalition partners Fianna Fáil are experiencing a drop in backing. Meanwhile, support for the Green Party remains unchanged. The government’s so-called “giveaway budget” has failed to produce the expected positive impact on public approval:

Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, and Green Party Performance

Poll Details for Government Parties

Poll Details for Government Parties

Fine Gael has risen by one point, reaching 26%, Fianna Fáil has lost two points, dropping to 19%, and the Greens remain at 4%.

The Social Democrats have gained two points, reaching a significant level of support that indicates slow but steady growth, while Sinn Féin has seen a modest increase of one point, showing a consistent level of trust among voters.

Opposition Parties Gain Support

Minor Gains for Social Democrats and Sinn Féin

Minor Gains for Social Democrats and Sinn Féin

Other opposition parties have also recorded small gains, indicating a general trend of improvement for all political groups alternative to the government coalition.

The lack of a substantial post-budget bounce in the polls is a disappointment for the government parties, while speculation is growing about when Taoiseach Simon Harris might call the next general election.

Challenges for the Government Parties

Internal Concerns and Speculations on Election Timing

Internal Concerns and Speculations on Election Timing

The absence of a strong positive impact could create internal tensions within the coalition and might trigger a rethinking of strategies to strengthen public trust. However, Harris remains the most popular party leader, with an approval rating of 53%, confirming his appeal among the electorate. He is followed by Tánaiste Micheál Martin at 50%, who continues to hold a solid position, and Social Democrats leader Holly Cairns at 40%, who appears to be gaining support thanks to her more direct communication with citizens.

Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald has also made progress, increasing her popularity from 31% to 34%, which indicates growing appreciation for her critical stance towards coalition policies.

Leadership Approval Ratings

Party Leaders’ Popularity and Public Perception

Party Leaders’ Popularity and Public Perception

Labour leader Ivana Bacik has gained one point, rising to 33%, while Aonú’s Peadar Toibín has also increased to 33%. Green Party leader Roderic O’Gorman has moved from 25% to 28%, showing a slight but important recovery, suggesting increased support for environmental policies.

Despite the increase in support for Mary Lou McDonald, she is still more than 20 points behind the Taoiseach in terms of personal popularity, making it challenging for Sinn Féin to compete directly with the government’s leadership.

Sinn Féin’s Challenges

Struggle to Compete with Government Leadership

Struggle to Compete with Government Leadership

This gap highlights the challenge the party faces in consolidating itself as a credible alternative in the eyes of a broad section of the electorate.

The poll also found that three-quarters of respondents oppose Israel’s military actions against the Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah in Lebanon and against Iran, with only 14% in favor and 11% unsure.

Public Opinion on International Issues

Opposition to Israel’s Actions and Preferences for Neutrality

Opposition to Israel’s Actions and Preferences for Neutrality

This result reflects a strong anti-interventionist stance among the Irish public, which is particularly sensitive to issues of international justice and global conflicts. The majority of respondents thus seem to favor a more neutral and humanitarian foreign policy.

More than two-thirds of respondents believe that Kamala Harris will be the next President of the United States, while fewer people now believe that Donald Trump will win the upcoming U.S. election: only 27% think this will happen, down nine points from the August poll.

Perceptions on the U.S. Presidential Election

Shifts in Views on U.S. Election Candidates

Shifts in Views on U.S. Election Candidates

This change in perception may reflect evolving political dynamics in the United States and growing confidence in the current Democratic administration.

Regarding the potential use of the so-called “Apple windfall” of €14 billion, most respondents would like these funds to be used for infrastructure projects (32%), improving the healthcare system (28%), and building new housing (25%).

Preferences for Spending the Apple Windfall

Public’s Focus on Long-Term Investments

Public’s Focus on Long-Term Investments

The distribution of preferences clearly shows a priority for long-term structural investments, aimed at addressing some of the country’s major social issues, such as the housing crisis and shortcomings in the healthcare system. Only 1% think the money should be used for further “giveaway budgets,” suggesting a general perception that one-off measures are not the ideal solution for the country’s problems.

Tánaiste Micheál Martin dismissed the poll results, saying he was not too concerned.

Tánaiste Micheál Martin’s Response to Poll Results

Defending Party Position Against Poll Fluctuations

Defending Party Position Against Poll Fluctuations

Speaking at Fianna Fáil’s annual Cairde Fáil dinner in Dublin, Martin stated that the party remains robust and confident, and downplayed concerns about the lack of post-budget growth in the polls. Martin also emphasized that the party’s consistency in previous polls and positive results in local elections are a more reliable indicator of the party’s strength.

“Have you looked at the polls over the last three years? You should do that and then compare them with the local election results; that’s my answer to the poll,” Martin said. “It has no relevance to our path: we are in a strong, confident, and robust position.” He added that the party is not interested in being swayed by momentary fluctuations in the polls but is instead focused on working consistently and diligently to improve the country’s conditions.

He further added: “As I was saying to the members tonight, if you consider all these polls over the last four years, we were allegedly in third place, well behind the other two, and yet we ended up as the largest party in local government. This result demonstrates our ability to grow substantially and earn the trust of the people, even when the polls seemed unfavorable. So I believe I am entitled to say that I am not too concerned about this poll.”