A New Cold War Era?

The global order is facing an unprecedented level of threat not seen since the Cold War, according to the chiefs of MI6 and the CIA. In a joint article published in the Financial Times, Sir Richard Moore, head of MI6, and William Burns, director of the CIA, warned of the grave challenges posed by an assertive Russia and ongoing conflicts around the world. The intelligence leaders highlighted the war in Ukraine as a key example of the instability threatening the international system of peace and prosperity that has prevailed for decades.

Resisting Russian Aggression

Both intelligence agencies have been united in supporting efforts to counter Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which began in February 2022. Moore and Burns emphasized that their agencies had foreseen the war and had taken steps to warn the global community, notably through the declassification of key intelligence to assist Kyiv. As Russia’s campaign continues into its third year, the intelligence chiefs reiterated the importance of disrupting Moscow’s sabotage operations across Europe and maintaining support for Ukraine in the face of escalating threats.

Sabotage and Desperation in Europe

One of the significant dangers cited by the intelligence heads is Russia’s covert operations in Europe, including acts of sabotage and arson. Sir Richard Moore pointed out that the Russian intelligence services have become “desperate”, even resorting to hiring criminals for these missions. Burns added that while some of these operations might seem amateurish, they still pose a serious risk due to their reckless nature.

Putin’s Grip on Power and the Risk of Escalation

In their article and public appearance at the FT Weekend Festival, Burns and Moore discussed the fragility of Vladimir Putin’s power. Despite tactical setbacks on the battlefield, Burns noted that there is no indication that Putin’s hold on Russia is weakening. He also addressed the real risk of nuclear escalation in late 2022 when setbacks for Russia raised concerns over the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons. Burns stressed that while the West should not dismiss the threat, they should not be intimidated by Putin’s tactics.

A Call for Continued Support for Ukraine

The intelligence chiefs made it clear that continued support for Ukraine is essential, despite fears of escalation. They emphasized that Putin “will not succeed” in his objectives, and that sustained international aid is crucial in resisting Russian aggression. Additionally, the war has underscored the importance of technology in modern warfare, with both agencies stressing the need for innovation to stay ahead in such conflicts.

The Rise of China: A Growing Challenge

Beyond Russia, both MI6 and the CIA identified the rise of China as the foremost geopolitical and intelligence challenge of the century. They revealed that their agencies have been reorganized to reflect this priority and continue to adapt their operations to counter China’s growing influence on the global stage.

Middle East De-escalation Efforts

In addition to the Ukraine conflict, the intelligence chiefs have also been working to de-escalate tensions in the Middle East, particularly in the ongoing Israel-Gaza war. Burns, who has been heavily involved in ceasefire efforts, hinted that a detailed proposal may emerge soon. Both leaders are pushing for a ceasefire and a hostage deal, calling it a matter of political will and urging both sides to come to an agreement.

Conclusion: A Complex, Dangerous Global Landscape

As the world faces an array of unprecedented threats, from Russian aggression to rising tensions with China, the UK and US intelligence services are playing a critical role in maintaining global stability. Their coordinated efforts reflect the importance of adaptation and resilience in the face of a rapidly evolving global landscape.